GUY FAWKES DAY UPDATE
How's THAT for a Symbol For Today?!
Rather than go through a laundry list of notes, I would like to use this update to clear my head about everything I've been thinking leading to today (which was one of the original intents for this endeavor), followed by the closest thing to a prediction I will get, and then ending with trivia bits to clear the deck and prepare for the vote-counting starting tonight!
For the last two years, primarily after tracking Donald Trump's degenerating behavior (thanks to the Hal Sparks Podcast Megaworldwide - well worth your time!), I have always been convinced Trump was not going to ever be President again. It was not even because of anything Joe Biden did (though I think is and has been doing a fantastic job and earned the right to run for re-election, much to the consternation of many of my progressive and Democratic friends), but the Trump the world has seen in the last three months has been coming for ages. He is not well and was getting worse, and my thought was always that no amount of hiding or deck stain-hued makeup base could hide it - and in the end, that would be obvious to all but the biggest die-hard MAGAts.
There did need to be an opponent, though, and up to the June debate it felt like the election would be a tense slog with uncomfortable Democrats sticking with Biden because of the ever-spiraling and ever-escalating threat Trump represented, particularly as Project 2025 reared its ugly head. We all know what happened with that debate, however, and the combination of the panic over Biden's performance with the assassination attempt (and no, I do not believe it was a conspiracy concocted by Trump - they're not talented enough to pull that kind of thing off) and the freak show that was the Republican convention combined for what may have been the lowest point of my belief - which was still there, but definitely shaken.
From my readings from various sources (The Atlantic comes to mind), that was also the apex of the Trump campaign. Apparently, Trump and company genuinely thought by the end of July that the election was in the bag. Open debates about who would be Chief of Staff, when the migrants would start getting rounded up, potential staffers actually discussing what curtains to put in the Oval Office were everywhere in a Milwaukee that was getting stiffed by MAGAts not giving the city any extra business (except for the sex workers ... of ALL genders, HMMMM ... ), and the thought that Trump's acceptance speech would milk his "survival" with the allegedly-iconic photo of Trump's wee tiny little fistie thrust in the air splashed all over the arena, would be the emotional triumph where Strong Man Donald would crush Sleepy Joe Bye-Den all the way until January 2025 and however long Trump wished to reign.
But in that last night of the GOP confab, the seeds of what I am quite confident will be (SPOILERS AHEAD) the electoral end of Trump were firmly planted. Because among the many, many, many, many, MANY things Trump is bad at, close to the top of the list is Generating Empathy. You probably do not recall any part of that speech, but instead of a thunderous triumph, it became the longest acceptance speech in American convention history. His retelling of what happened in PA was garbled, drawn out, and left in the dust to go off script into exactly the same kind of long, offensive, horribly modulated and incoherent self-pitying sexist racist mess that he has been drooling for the last two years.
In other words, the Trump the nation saw that night was the Trump MAGAts always have seen, especially post-January 5.
Three days after that mess, Biden dropped out of the race. Four days after that mess, Kamala Harris secured the delegates for the Democratic nomination, frustrating many Democrats hoping for an 'open primary' of some sort and debuting one of the more savage and hungry political operations this side of Obama 2008. And by Labor Day, Harris jujitsued the race with jaw-dropping fundraising, the selection of Real American Dad Tim Walz as Vice President (a perfect counter to the greasy woman-hating chameleon that is Trump Number Two JD "Extra Sprinkles On Your Donut, Mr. Thiel?" Vance), the revelation that the Alphas of MAGA Nation could be shriveled and squeaked just by calling them "weird," and the Democratic Lollapalooza Convention in Chicago.
Suddenly, Trump's "Resistance is Futile" strategy could not really be completed - not just because Harris is a woman of color, but because in the one place where Trump could have shown some dominance chops (as he continually bragged he did against Biden - Biden's throat cold and work to release hostages from Russia would beg to differ), it was Harris that dominated Trump, again exposing him as the REALLY Old, REALLY Weird Convicted Felon Ex-President R-apist that he always has been by goading him into (as we all delightfully remember) repeating Vance's lie about Haitians in Ohio (getting Trump into a "WHERE IS MY PUDDING CUP!?" octave when screeching "THEY'RE EATING THE DAWGS!" was just the button on it all), and signaling that Harris was no Biden and no Hillary, DON!
From that point forward, the Trump campaign was in a box. They needed a variation of a Rose Garden strategy to keep Trump hidden while surrogates tried to make Harris as unliked as Trump and quietly work on the one and only group of voters Trump looked to increase: dudebro 20 somethings who watch way too much Barstool Sports and play violent video games (that's not my stereotype, that's theirs). The problem: the GOP had been gutted thanks to Trump taking all the money and not creating anything resembling a grass roots get-out-the-vote functioning political party, or even a traditional outreach apparatus (which was generated in large part in 2016 and 2020 from his mass rallies), so without an infrastructure and quietly divided Republican Party (Nikki Haley consistently got 20%-25% of the primary vote even after she dropped out of the race), that meant the only way the Trump campaign had to get foot traffic and excitement was to trot Trump out, and in the process expose and accelerate his cognitive and emotional decay.
So the campaign did, and in so doing another part of the Trump strategy got exposed: Trump just ain't the draw he used to be. Far, FAR from it, in fact (as Kamala never failed to note). The evidence that people are just getting tired of Trump piled up, along with Harris running a campaign full of star power, massive crowds, surprise endorsements, even more money, and the confidence to work on clawing down Trump's Republican base in a clear and sometimes controversial way that wound up making her look better (see: Fox News interview).
Now, my personal confidence kept getting built through the election season - but I may have been a unicorn. Because many of my friends and readers and Threads followers kept looking at how horrible Trump did, how fantastic Kamala was doing, and Pha-REEK-ing out because WHY DO THE POLLS KEEP SAYING THIS RACE IS TIED?!
We will discuss that post-election in more detail - Lord knows the media itself certainly was - but it was also apparent regular news coverage, which was cruel towards Biden's age (thanks to the New York Times Editor openly admitting as much) and slow to the stick on what Trump was so clearly going through, as well as history that says close races tend to become blowouts in the last week of the campaign when the non-obsessed political citizens finally take a look at the candidates and make up their mind.
And THAT, In My Humble Opinion, is where the Trump chickens are coming home to roost.
By every account, Trump's Madison Square Garden hate-fest, and subsequent Worst Week of A Campaign EVAH (calling MSG "a love fest", the rapey comments about protecting women, the attempt to use Biden's misstatement about garbage boomeranging into a Dukakis-esque display of site gags and cruel physical comedy, wanting to execute Liz Cheney (R-Still a Cheney), attempting to blow a mike stand, and in his last half-filled rally in MI last night, calling Nancy Pelosi a "bitch" by mouthing the words because Own Da Libs?) has made whispers from Trump's own campaign acknowledge that late-deciding voters that went Trump's way in 2016 and 2020 are moving to Harris instead. The mood in Mar-a-Lago is not good. (Sad!)
Meanwhile, the numbers and reports from the grass roots were coming in so strong that over the weekend the Harris campaign and her waves of surrogates were confidently saying Harris was no longer the underdog in the race, that they have the momentum, and that they would be able to bring the election home without fear of 2016-levels of complacency thanks to the banked early voters (82 million per the AP, 53% of which are women) and massive get-out-the-vote effort in mighty motion now. (Because have you noticed that in this update I am only now going to mention the Dobbs decision, which the Harris campaign believes is going to generate more not-caught-by-pollsters voters than Trump's last-second endorsement late last night from Ultimate Dudebro Joe Rogan of young male would-be cat-grabbers? Well, I just did!)
All of this is why, despite the stakes of the election and the full knowledge that voters are gonna do what voters are gonna do and you don't know which strategy worked until the votes are counted - and that the misogyny, racism, and violence that Trump has anointed as legitimate political discourse thanks to a MAGA nation that will still be around no matter the results - I have slept soundly through to today (except for this morning, but that was only because I volunteered to deliver donuts to polling stations in Chicago that have been jam-packed for early voting and which are reportedly now jammed in the regular polling places). I thought two years ago Trump would lose and I genuinely don't see a reason why that has changed based on the empirical data available, where Harris has every metric going her way except some polls, which now literally mean nothing.
So beyond that, while there is no way I would say how many states will be won or what the margins will be, I WILL make two provisional predictions ...
The first is Georgia and North Carolina. My gut tells me that at worse, Trump and Harris will split them. The early voting in those states will run into the rural/urban divide in each state and whether the lies about FEMA in the wake of Hurricanes Helene and Milton took root - but both states will announce their early vote counts as votes poll, and both states should have their votes counted by midnight EST. Thus ...
PREDICTION ONE: If Harris wins one of those two states, you can put your anxiety meds away - Kamala's got it. If Trump wins them both (and he kind of has to), keep the meds close by because we will be sweating it out in the Midwest (although folks who have canvassed in MI and WI say Harris is very confident of those states, and Hal Sparks has been confident of PA for months, so In Hal I Trust, so in other words I still think we win, it will just be closer). If Kamala wins both states, though, strap it down - there just may be something close to a landslide coming.
That brings me to PREDICTION TWO, pinned on that shock Iowa poll that has Harris up by 3% in what was thought to be a rock-solid state now shaky thanks to (what else?) abortion rights. I will not predict whether Harris will actually win, though that pollster has a stellar reputation and record to prove it.
I WILL, however, predict that if Harris does win Iowa, that Iowa will not be the only non-battleground red state that Harris wins. Kansas, Ohio, North Dakota, even Alaska reportedly has seen weakness in Trump numbers - heck, folks are glancing at the Puerto Rican and Haitian populations of Florida and the fact that Trump only beat Biden by 5% in Texas, where Cancun Ted Cruz has been sweating slushy watered-down margaritas over his campaign. So any one of those, IMHO, would join Iowa so Iowa doesn't feel lonely. (Again, IF it happens!)
As for the rest of the races, the winner of the Presidency will win the House - that one's easy - but the Senate is going to be wild and likely not known for days. Too many close races in too many swing states, and the potential for surprises on both side of the aisle are all on the table.
That was long, and it was definitely my way of channeling anxiety before taking a cat nap and handing out lit for two local races: Chicago School Board (vote Kate Doyle!) and Metropolitan Water Reclamation District (vote Sharon Waller!). Tonight, I will be listening to Hal Sparks, who will be on for 24 hours staring at 1 pm Central Time for the returns and reports and comedy, then popping on Kornacki and keeping eyes on Threads, BlueSky, online, and a Substack friend or two. I'll throw updates on Facebook and Substack Notes starting around 7 pm Chicago time.
And, yes, none of this pre-post-mortem covers potential MAGA-inspired Election Day interference at the polls (no reports I'm seeing yet), the inevitable Trump claim of victory as votes are being counted (another reason the GA/NC results are gonna be pivotal), whatever attempt at thievery Trump and lapdog Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Jay-EE-Zuz!, LA) is coming, or what I will do if I am wrong and Trump wins, other than owning up to it and plotting accordingly as long as I am allowed. (If you believe in portents, however, here's a morbid one: the founder of Home Depot, billionaire Trump/GOP/MAGA funder Bernie Marcus passed away this morning at the age of 95.)
But, IT IS ON! Vote. Help others to vote. Breathe. Take care of yourself. And as Lawrence O'Donnell said last night, optimism is a choice - and Kamala Harris has earned your optimism. I have chosen optimism for the last few years, so dammit, I CHOOSE OPTIMISM NOW!
LET'S! WIN! THIS!
Now, your reward for getting through my discursion ...
On this date in 1862, Abraham Lincoln removed George McClellan from his command of the Army of the Potomac. On this date in 1872, Susan B. Anthony cast a ballot for President (she was later arrested for her crime). On this date in 1941, Japanese military commanders gave the go-ahead to execute an attack on Pearl Harbor. On this date in 1940, Franklin Roosevelt won an unprecedented third term as President. On this date in 1994, George Foreman became the oldest heavyweight boxing champion in history. On this date in 2013, India launched its first spacecraft - a Mars explorer.
Debuts on this date: CinemaScope (1953), THE NAT KING COLE SHOW (1956).
Happy Birthday to Eugene V. Debs, Ida Tarbell, Roy Rogers, John McGiver, Vivien Leigh, Elke Sommer, Art Garfunkel, Sam Shepard, Gram Parsons, Peter Noone, Bernard-Henri Levy, Tony Evers, Bill Walton, Kris Jenner, Jon-Erik Hexum, Robert Patrick, Bryan Adams, Tilda Swinton, Andrea McArdle, Tatum O'Neal, Sam Rockwell, Javy Lopez, Corin Nemec, Jonny Greenwood, Johnny Damon, Eiud Kipchoge, and Odell Beckham, Jr.
Rest in Peace/Rest in Power to George M. Cohan, Art Tatum, Mack Sennett, Ward Bond, Al Capp, Barry Sadler, Vladimir Horowtiz, Fred MacMurray, Vinnette Carroll, Bobby Hatfield, Link Wray, John Fowles, Jill Clayburgh, Ernest J. Gaines, and Aaron Carter.
Feed the Worms: Ike Turner and Chris Sununu entered Earth on this date.